Think you'll finish college?

Statistics from UT's Office of Institutional Research indicate that 26 percent of students who started at the University in 1997 had failed or dropped out by 2003.

The rest of the country isn't doing much better in terms of getting diplomas on students' walls. In a 1996-2001 study by the U.S. Department of Education of two- and four-year colleges, only 51 percent of students earned a degree, and 34 percent had left college after six years. Four-year schools had a higher completion rate: Public and private four-year colleges had six-year graduation rates of 61 and 74 percent, respectively.

Jamie Scurry, research associate for the Futures Project, an organization focused on the role of higher education in society, said dropping out, especially among first-generation college students, means a lost opportunity for moving up in society.

"The heart of America is built on social mobility," Scurry said. "And if people don't have the chance to gain the skills to get a better job, what chance do they have for social mobility?"

About 70 percent of growing job fields require education beyond high school, according to the Futures Project.

"You can't just come out of high school and get a job that's going to allow you to be OK," Scurry said.

From 1987 to 2000, the percentage of jobs requiring a college degree nearly doubled, rising from 42 percent to 75 percent, according to the Futures Project's Web site.

In the past, policy makers have been focused on access to college and not completion, but that focus has recently shifted to include retention.

If students get into college but can't finish, Scurry said, "what are we giving students access to?"


Financial troubles, social woes

Kenneth Hampton, co-manager of the Wendy's in the Union, took courses at Tyler Junior College for three semesters, but quit because he was working two jobs to support his wife and children.

Hampton's story is not unusual.

Factors contributing to dropout rates include not being able to afford college, not fitting in, inadequate or unaffordable child care, inconvenient course times and needing to work, Scurry said.

"Sometimes it's just fear or being intimidated," she said.

The University's First-Year Interest Group (FIG) program, started in 1997, might be helping students in that regard. Cassandre Alvarado, the FIG coordinator, said about half the freshman class joins one of these 25-person cohorts of students who take two-to-four classes and a weekly seminar together.

"FIG was implemented, not only to help with retention, but also to contribute to a sense of belonging," she said.

And she thinks it's working, although the statistics are forthcoming. Several students have told her the program made the difference that led them not to drop out, she said.

But staying in college requires financial needs to be met, too.

The Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance, an independent counsel that advises Congress on financial aid, reported in 2002 that 48 percent of all college-qualified, low-income students and 43 percent of moderate-income students would not attend four-year colleges because of financial need.

However, even if they begin college, low-income students are less likely to graduate. Students whose families earn more than $70,000 per year are 1.4 times as likely to graduate within six years than students whose families earn less than $25,000 per year, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

Hampton doesn't regret leaving college and believes that even if he had finished his degree and become a theater teacher, he would probably be making less money than the $40,000 he averages per year as the co-manager of Wendy's. (The average teacher salary in Texas is also about $40,000, according to the Texas Federation of Teachers' Web site.)


Where is the money?

Many employers who used to hire high school graduates now require applicants to have college degrees, according to the Futures Project.

But with the current dismal job market, even college graduates are unemployed or under-employed.

In fact, the number of unemployed college graduates surpassed the number of unemployed high school dropouts earlier this year, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

More than 35 percent of recent college graduates take jobs that don't require college degrees, an increase of 15 percent over the past five years, said Jeremy Rifkin, president of the Foundation on Economic Trends, in his book "The End of Work."

The job market for college graduates is the worst it has been since World War II, according to a report from the Collegiate Employment Research Institute at Michigan State University, and MonsterTrak reports that 62 percent of last year's college graduates planned to live at home for awhile to save money.

This is often attributed to an increasing college population. In 1950, only about 18 percent of the U.S. population held a college degree, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics. Now, 23.6 percent of adults hold college degrees, according to the 2000 census.

The bureau also reports that the greatest job growth in the next decade will be in medium-wage service jobs, such as medical assistance, social and human service assistance and home health aid. Of the 10 occupations expected to expand the most, seven do not require a college degree. According to a 1999 report from the ERIC Clearinghouse on Adult Career and Vocational Education, the fastest growing occupations require an associate's degree but not a bachelor's degree.


Investing in a degree

In an oft-quoted 1998 Forbes article, "The Tyranny of the Diploma," senior editor Brigid McMenamin argued that the money invested in a college degree might be worth more as a mutual fund with a high interest rate. She noted that the $120,000 cost of a private-college education, invested in municipal bonds at 5 percent, would be worth $500,000 by the time the student was 50 years old, likely more money than the premium earned by having a college degree, and perhaps even more than the money earned overall.

Fred Frey, a partner with the Austin firm Maxwell, Locke & Ritter LLP, questioned whether foregoing college to invest was a good idea.

(But he would say, it's a good idea "to invest as much as you can afford as soon as you can afford it.")

According to Census Bureau statistics, college graduates consistently earn more on average than non-graduates.

Women aged 25 and older who worked full-time, year-round, and held a bachelor's degree typically earned $38,200, according to the 2000 census. With a high school diploma or GED, their average annual income totaled $23,700.

For men, the corresponding earnings were $53,500 with a college degree and $32,500 with a high school diploma or the equivalent.

Martin Nemko, a career consultant and author of the "All-in-One College Guide," wrote in the Princeton Review that the differences in incomes occur "because the pool of the college-bound is brighter, more motivated and has more family connections than the non-college-bound. You could lock the college-bound in a closet for four years, and they'll earn more."

Some of the Forbes 400 members are examples of this. Fifty-eight of the 1998 members either dropped out or never attended college, and their average net worth is more than twice that of the Forbes 400 Ivy League graduates.

The College Dropouts Alumni Association boasts several other notable members. According to its Web site, Steve Martin, Woody Allen and Microsoft's Bill Gates dropped out of college.

The University of Texas' illustrious dropouts include Walter Cronkite, Michael Dell and David Geffen of Geffen Records.

Starting your own business might not be the only way to get around not having a college degree. Nemko suggests you can apply to jobs for which a degree is required, if you explain in a cover letter how you gained the equivalent education independently.

He said he asked an audience of successful executives whether they would hire someone who turned in such a letter with a resume, and "90 percent raised their hands.

"There are paths to career and life happiness that don't require a college degree," he said.

Famous Dropouts

* William Faulkner, author
* Richard Leakey, anthropologist
* Thomas Edison, inventor
* Coco Chanel, designer
* Frank Lloyd Wright, architect
* Ellen DeGeneres, comedian
* Steve Martin, actor
* Tom Hanks, actor
* Karl Rove, presidential adviser

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