In case anyone has figured out exactly how college football’s Bowl Championship Series works, there’s a new challenge for puzzle fans: the 2010 Texas gubernatorial race.
While the election is still almost a year away, there is speculation concerning party primaries set for March. On the Republican side, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has declared that she will challenge incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, who himself is seeking an unprecedented third term. Perry is already the longest-serving governor in Texas history.
But the upcoming primary is more than a simple clash of two political titans. The predicament concerns Hutchison and her current seat in the U.S. Senate. While it was previously speculated that she might step down from her post to concentrate on the gubernatorial primary, Hutchison announced last week that she would hold on to her seat until next March to help her Republican colleagues oppose certain Democratic initiatives.
Hutchison is a senior senator in a legislative body that greatly values seniority. If she were to resign, her replacement would lose that seniority, weakening the state’s influence in Washington.
Should Hutchison win the primary and resign her Senate seat, a special election would be called to fill it. Candidates are already lining up for such an election, even though it is not yet certain that it will even take place. After making significant electoral gains in 2008, many Texas Democrats see a special election as an opportune moment to take back a Senate seat in a historically conservative state.
Two top state Democrats have declared for the primary: former state Comptroller John Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White. White is best known as the moderate leader of the state’s largest city, while Sharp is credited with creating the Texas Tomorrow Fund, among other accomplishments. On the Republican side, a slew of potential candidates have lined up, including several recognizable names like Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. Of course, that election is entirely dependent on Hutchison resigning her position, triggering a game of musical chairs across state politics.
The upcoming race is not lacking in characters. Perry and Hutchison are already icons of state politics with name recognition beyond Texas borders. Perry is a former Texas A&M yell leader, a position he seems to have channeled in recent months by hinting at support for Texas secession and most recently by labeling President Barack Obama’s administration as socialist. In perfect made-for-TV contrast, Hutchison is a former Longhorn cheerleader and member of Pi Beta Phi who, with her election in 1993, became the first female senator from Texas.
Whoever comes out of the Democratic primary will be an underdog in a state that has kept a Republican in the Governor’s Mansion since 1995. There are plenty of hopefuls auditioning for the part, though. For comic relief there’s longtime Texan humorist Kinky Friedman, who’s back for another run after a failed 2006 attempt as an independent — this time trying for a run as a Democrat. Recently joining the already crowded primary field is businessman Farouk Shami, who has pledged $10 million of his own money to his campaign, vowed to take an annual salary of $1 and declared that he has “100 percent certainty” that he will win the election. Both are long shots to win the Democratic primary but are a welcome respite from the rest of the field, consisting of Hank Gilbert and Tom Schieffer, who promise to be about as exciting as a Baylor pep rally.
The lackluster field of candidates has some Democrats calling for a drastic shift in party strategy. Austin-based Democratic trumpeter Burnt Orange Report recently questioned why the party’s two most promising candidates, Sharp and White, are focusing on an election that might never take place.
A perfect storm could would result in Republicans retaining both positions. Should Perry win the primary, he would likely go on to win a third full term, as the Democratic Party has yet to field a serious candidate. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Perry currently leads Hutchison by 11 points. While Hutchison has stated she does not intend to seek a fourth term in the Senate in 2012, there is no guarantee she will follow through on that promise.
Should Hutchison retain her seat, there would be no special election; Sharp and White will have mobilized their campaigns prematurely. The duo could still challenge the incumbent in 2012, but doing so would mean committing to a race more than two years from now while already campaigning at an election-year pace. That would put the two in a long, costly campaign for nearly the next three years.
Of the two, only White is in a position to mount a legitimate campaign for the governorship. While the two have tracked evenly in polls, White has far surpassed Sharp in crucial early fundraising.
If either candidate is going to make the jump, it will have to be soon. Primaries are only months away, and endorsements are starting to pile up. On Tuesday, Stephen F. Austin State’s University Democrats became the first student group to endorse when it chose to back Sharp. UT’s own University Democrats were scheduled to vote on an endorsement yesterday but delayed its decision after Hutchison announced she would not be stepping down before March. It makes sense to hold off on an endorsement for an election that might never take place.
Or perhaps state Democrats will realize that their only hope for a victory in 2010 is to split the ticket. In the meantime, Texas Republicans can sit back without fear of any serious challenges to their hold on the state.
Player is a plan II honors junior.
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